A blog post from NFER looks at the potential impact on school finances of the projected falls in pupil numbers. The Department for Education forecasts primary pupil numbers will fall by five per cent (ca. 185,000 pupils) between January 2025 and 2028, with a further drop of approximately 115,000 pupils expected from January 2028 and 2030.
It notes that schools are having to reduce the number of classes (by 4.8 per cent nationally) and average class size (by 2.5 per cent nationally) in response to declining pupil numbers.
The authors note that there is no consistent pattern between changes in pupil numbers and revenue balance in 2023/24, which surprising given that changes in pupil numbers are only one of a number of financial pressures impacting on schools in recent years.
They conclude that, in the context of the challenging financial circumstances already faced by some primary schools in 2023/24, unless per pupil funding is increased, this demographic change will require significant cost-saving measures across schools.
You can read the article in full here.
dsga.org.uk 