The recent NFER Teacher Voice Omnibus Survey found that the majority of primary and secondary leaders reported anticipating an in-year budget deficit for 2025/26. Previous Teacher Voice surveys have shown that senior leaders’ expectations may be overly pessimistic, which may also reflect the impact of corrective actions taken mid-year by schools and the Government to improve schools’ financial prospects.
However, shrinking pupil populations are likely to be a contributor to schools’ current financial pressures. This is set to worsen, with the Department for Education projecting there will be nearly 400,000 fewer pupils in state-funded primary and secondary schools by 2030. Among the the subgroup of senior leaders who said they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change, they report having cut staff or provision as a response. Smaller but notable shares of senior leaders said they are considering doing so within the next two years. You can read more about this on the NFER webiste, here.
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