This new report by Luke Sibieta from The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) seeks to inform the debate on school funding during the 2024 general election by analysing past trends and likely future pressures.
Key findings inlcude:
- Spending on English schools fell by c. 9% in real terms between 2010 and 2019, but increased spending since then has returned to 2010 levels.
- This contrasts with a longer term background (since the 1970s) of spening ioncreasing in real terms by an average of about 2% (5%-6% under Labour).
- School costs have grown rapidly in recent years and by more than overall inflation, and will continue to do so.
- Growth in pupil numbers since 2009 has now reversed, with pupil numbers expected to fall by over 5% 2024 and 2028. If this is translated into savings it will inevitbaly put pressure on staffing levels.
- Key spending pressures in the short term include special educational needs provision, teacher pay, and repairs needed to school buildings.
- The number of pupils assessed as having the highest levels of special educational needs (i.e. with an Education, Health and Care Plan) increased by over 60% from about 220,000 in 2015 to about 360,000 in 2022.
- Average teacher pay across the UK in 2024 is expected to be over 6% lower in real terms than in 2010, and is at a similar level in real terms to that seen in 2001. These declines in teacher pay relative to average earnings may help to explain why teacher recruitment is significantly behind targets and why 1 in 10 teachers leave the state sector each year.
- Capital spending on school buildings is low in historical terms. The three-year average up to 2023–24 is about 25% lower in real terms than the three-year average up to 2008–09.
You can download the full report from the IFS website, here.
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