School funding model: Effect of falling school rolls

~ Bruce Levitan

This sobering new report from the Education Policy Institute finds that:

  • Total pupil numbers in state-funded primary and secondary schools are projected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million in 2022-23, and then decrease at an average rate of 1.0 per cent each year until they reach 7.14 million in 2028-29.
  • This means that even under a scenario where per pupil funding is increased by 0.5 per cent per year, overall funding would still fall by £1 billion by 2029-2030. Total funding would peak in 2024-25 at £42.7 billion but would then decrease by a yearly average of 0.5 per cent until 2029-30, where it would fall to £41.6 billion – 2.6 per cent lower than its peak in 2024-25.
  • Primary funding will be overtaken by secondary funding in 2026-27. In 2023-24, total funding for primary schools was 5.9 per cent higher than total funding for secondary schools. Primary funding will decrease until it is overtaken by secondary funding in 2026-27, when both funding totals begin a downward trend. By 2029-30, secondary funding will be 1.2 per cent higher than primary funding.
  • All regions will experience a decrease in primary school funding between 2023-24 and 2029-30, with the North East projected the largest decrease of 9.0 per cent. The East of England is projected the smallest decrease with just a 1.2 per cent drop in funding.
  • In secondary schools, all regions with the exceptions of Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and London are projected to experience an increase in funding between 2023-24 and 2029-30. The East of England is projected the largest increase at 4.9 per cent.
  • If decreases in funding due to falling pupil numbers were ‘reinvested’ and funding was maintained at peak levels of 2024-25, funding could be increased by a further £148 for primary pupils, and £164 for secondary pupils by 2030.

You can download the full report from their website, here. Also on their website (at the same link) you can view interactive charts for pupil number and funding changes by region, local authority, and parliamentary constituency here. You can also find full tables detailing projected changes in pupil numbers and funding by local authority and by parliamentary constituency.